North Slope ice road temperature forecast, 2026-27 · Updated October 6, 2026
When will my tundra open this season?
Median opening date, coastal plain
with an 80% chance it opens between December 20 and January 11.4,5,7
The risk leans later: 4 outlook signals point later and 3 earlier; route ground reached 0 °C about 3 days before typical, an early signal.
Monitored routes: about 18 days earlier7
Typically ready December 16 (80%: November 26 to January 5)7
86% of monitored route-seasons were ready before the general opening.7
Readiness by the soil rule, not DNR approval: the day route ground at 30 cm was first at or below -5 °C for 3 straight days, over 7 winters of route-seasons with a DNR general opening.
Live views: FAA weather cameras on the North Slope, such as Nuiqsut and Deadhorse (opens in a new tab)
Coastal plain only. This covers the Alaska DNR Eastern and Western Coastal tundra travel areas. The opening dates come from Eastern Coastal records. The Foothills areas are not forecast here; they open on their own schedule.4 In DNR's words: “The tundra is opened to winter off-road travel in the Coastal areas when the soil temperature at a depth of 12 inches reaches 23˚F and there is an average of six (6) inches of snow on the ground.”4 DNR announces the official openings on its tundra travel status page.4
Operators with their own ground temperature data along a route can ask DNR for earlier access through a conditional opening.4 How early access works
Which signals push the opening earlier or later?
The baseline is the spread of past openings. Each signal below either nudges this season later, nudges it earlier, or cuts both ways.
What moves the opening date earlier or later
Baseline: statistical forecast
Median of the 16 coastal openings since 2010-11, all under today's opening rule. The middle 80% fell between December 20 and January 11.4,5,7
January 4 (80%: Dec 20 to Jan 11) (Baseline)
What we are seeing
Monitored route ground at 30 cm reached 0 °C on Sep 24, about 3 days before the typical Sep 27; 93% of routes were past 0 °C by Oct 5, against 83% typically. Early signal: the 0 °C date alone does not predict the -5 °C date.7
Slightly early, early signal (Pushes earlier)
NOAA winter outlook
40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-normal season at Deadhorse through February; at Utqiagvik, 33 to 40% from the November to January season on. Usual odds are 1 in 3.1
Later (Pushes later)
Cold-fall outlook (NOAA and ACCAP)
A joint quarterly outlook gives western Alaska a 40 to 60% chance of a colder-than-normal October to December, the opposite of NOAA's seasonal map.1
Earlier in the west, if right (Pushes earlier)
El Niño
A very strong event is expected. Only two strong El Niño winters fall under today's rule; they opened January 4 and January 12, against a typical January 4.1,7
Slightly later, low confidence (Pushes later)
Sea ice
September minimum tied for 10th lowest. Chukchi and Beaufort ice still well below normal.3
Later (Pushes later)
Freeze-up moisture
Utqiagvik had 184% of normal September precipitation; Deadhorse ran near normal.2
Later in the west (Pushes later)
Early October air
5 to 7 °F colder than normal at Deadhorse and Utqiagvik.2
Earlier (Pushes earlier)
Precipitation outlook
NOAA leans dry through spring. Thin snow lets the ground cool faster but meets the snow rule later.1
Mixed (Mixed)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The negative phase may dampen the El Niño effect.1
Softens the later push (Pushes earlier)
Outlook signals: 4 point later, 3 earlier, 1 mixed. A plain count, not a weighted forecast. The baseline and what we are seeing are not counted.
Can my route open before the general opening?
Sometimes, yes. DNR opens each coastal travel area as a whole once its own monitoring stations meet the opening criteria. It can also approve travel before that, which this page calls early tundra access and DNR calls a conditional opening. In DNR's words: “In years when opening criteria are not met the tundra may be opened conditionally with specific operating restrictions” and “Conditionally approved travel is encouraged when there is sufficient snow to begin pre-packing for ice road construction.”4
- 18 days earlier (median)7
- 86% ready before the general opening7
- 1 in 5 ready a month or more early7
- Middle 80%: 3 days late to 36 days early7
Days between monitored route readiness (ground at 30 cm at or below -5 °C for 3 straight days) and DNR's general opening for the same area and season, over 7 winters.
- Why your own sensors matter. DNR's stations speak for the whole area, not your route. Ground at 30 cm along your route can show it reaching -5 °C before the area does; with enough snow, that is evidence to start the permit conversation early.4
- Reported results. In one case study, an operator using beadedcloud ground temperature data received its tundra travel permit 21 days before the State's general opening.7 Read a connectivity provider's case study (opens in a new tab)
- Planning the request. The site-level model forecasts the day each site reaches -5 °C about 21 days ahead in early testing (see the model section): the lead time to line up crews and the DNR request.7
Will the tundra be open by my date?
Pick the date you need to be on the tundra. Each curve shows how past dates spread out: the general opening across the 16 Eastern Coastal seasons since 2010-11, and the day monitored routes were ready.4,5,7
General opening: 56% by January 4
Monitored routes ready: 90% by January 4
Curves smooth past dates with a Gaussian kernel (Silverman bandwidth). Each curve is scaled to its own total, so compare shapes, not heights. General opening: the 16 Eastern Coastal openings since 2010-11. Route readiness: the day route ground at 30 cm reached -5 °C, over 7 winters. The percentages are the share of past dates on or before your date, not a forecast for this season.4,5,7
How far along is the freeze today?
Monitored route ground at 30 cm reached 0 °C on Sep 24, about 3 days before the typical Sep 27; 93% of routes were past 0 °C by Oct 5, against 83% typically. Early signal: the 0 °C date alone does not predict the -5 °C date.7
Air near the ground
Early7
Logger enclosure temperature used as an air proxy; sun warms it, treat as rough.
- Early: 3 or more days ahead of the typical date
- On schedule: within 2 days of typical
- Running late: 3 or more days behind
- Well behind: a week or more behind
- This fall
- Past 7 winters, median
- Past 7 winters, middle 80%
- -5 °C (DNR rule): ground criterion
Show the numbers
| Date | This fall (°C) | Past 7 winters, median (°C) | Past 7 winters, middle 80% (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1 | 1.59 | 2.93 | 0.46 to 6.75 |
| Aug 2 | 2.00 | 2.87 | 0.47 to 6.76 |
| Aug 3 | 2.00 | 2.90 | 0.59 to 6.80 |
| Aug 4 | 1.96 | 3.11 | 0.73 to 6.67 |
| Aug 5 | 1.83 | 3.32 | 0.82 to 6.65 |
| Aug 6 | 2.12 | 3.30 | 0.73 to 6.83 |
| Aug 7 | 2.36 | 3.19 | 0.78 to 7.12 |
| Aug 8 | 2.50 | 3.08 | 0.74 to 6.71 |
| Aug 9 | 2.27 | 2.83 | 0.64 to 6.28 |
| Aug 10 | 2.07 | 2.55 | 0.60 to 5.85 |
| Aug 11 | 1.97 | 2.46 | 0.64 to 5.44 |
| Aug 12 | 1.86 | 2.58 | 0.62 to 5.34 |
| Aug 13 | 1.81 | 2.71 | 0.79 to 5.35 |
| Aug 14 | 1.88 | 2.78 | 0.80 to 5.18 |
| Aug 15 | 2.18 | 2.57 | 0.72 to 4.78 |
| Aug 16 | 2.81 | 2.48 | 0.67 to 4.81 |
| Aug 17 | 2.94 | 2.54 | 0.73 to 4.93 |
| Aug 18 | 2.35 | 2.41 | 0.73 to 5.02 |
| Aug 19 | 2.05 | 2.35 | 0.76 to 4.89 |
| Aug 20 | 1.83 | 2.33 | 0.72 to 4.54 |
| Aug 21 | 2.09 | 2.27 | 0.73 to 4.49 |
| Aug 22 | 2.25 | 2.23 | 0.73 to 4.37 |
| Aug 23 | 2.01 | 2.10 | 0.49 to 3.98 |
| Aug 24 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 0.57 to 3.76 |
| Aug 25 | 2.00 | 1.99 | 0.54 to 3.82 |
| Aug 26 | 1.90 | 1.89 | 0.50 to 3.74 |
| Aug 27 | 1.57 | 1.92 | 0.54 to 3.89 |
| Aug 28 | 1.37 | 1.94 | 0.48 to 3.73 |
| Aug 29 | 1.24 | 1.76 | 0.45 to 3.32 |
| Aug 30 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 0.40 to 3.05 |
| Aug 31 | 1.08 | 1.47 | 0.30 to 2.99 |
| Sep 1 | 0.97 | 1.33 | 0.28 to 3.12 |
| Sep 2 | 0.74 | 1.41 | 0.28 to 3.15 |
| Sep 3 | 0.58 | 1.50 | 0.30 to 3.14 |
| Sep 4 | 0.41 | 1.58 | 0.37 to 3.17 |
| Sep 5 | 0.34 | 1.57 | 0.35 to 3.14 |
| Sep 6 | 0.29 | 1.47 | 0.28 to 3.11 |
| Sep 7 | 0.42 | 1.41 | 0.27 to 3.08 |
| Sep 8 | 0.42 | 1.35 | 0.27 to 3.03 |
| Sep 9 | 0.48 | 1.31 | 0.27 to 3.03 |
| Sep 10 | 0.70 | 1.23 | 0.22 to 2.95 |
| Sep 11 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 0.14 to 2.78 |
| Sep 12 | 1.44 | 1.11 | 0.08 to 2.60 |
| Sep 13 | 1.23 | 1.00 | 0.03 to 2.44 |
| Sep 14 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.01 to 2.29 |
| Sep 15 | 0.47 | 0.85 | 0.00 to 2.16 |
| Sep 16 | 0.22 | 0.79 | -0.04 to 1.95 |
| Sep 17 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 0.01 to 1.93 |
| Sep 18 | 0.06 | 0.79 | 0.06 to 1.93 |
| Sep 19 | 0.06 | 0.78 | 0.06 to 1.81 |
| Sep 20 | 0.02 | 0.63 | 0.00 to 1.52 |
| Sep 21 | -0.03 | 0.41 | -0.08 to 1.28 |
| Sep 22 | -0.01 | 0.35 | -0.13 to 1.13 |
| Sep 23 | 0.07 | 0.27 | -0.17 to 1.00 |
| Sep 24 | -0.05 | 0.16 | -0.19 to 0.80 |
| Sep 25 | -0.14 | 0.08 | -0.19 to 0.65 |
| Sep 26 | -0.19 | 0.01 | -0.23 to 0.54 |
| Sep 27 | -0.22 | -0.03 | -0.24 to 0.35 |
| Sep 28 | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.25 to 0.29 |
| Sep 29 | -0.24 | -0.06 | -0.26 to 0.24 |
| Sep 30 | -0.24 | -0.07 | -0.27 to 0.16 |
| Oct 1 | -0.24 | -0.08 | -0.27 to 0.23 |
| Oct 2 | -0.24 | -0.11 | -0.31 to 0.19 |
| Oct 3 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.32 to 0.14 |
| Oct 4 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.32 to 0.12 |
| Oct 5 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.32 to 0.08 |
| Oct 6 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.06 | |
| Oct 7 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.05 | |
| Oct 8 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.04 | |
| Oct 9 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.04 | |
| Oct 10 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.03 | |
| Oct 11 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 12 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.03 | |
| Oct 13 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.03 | |
| Oct 14 | -0.13 | -0.32 to 0.03 | |
| Oct 15 | -0.14 | -0.32 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 16 | -0.14 | -0.32 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 17 | -0.15 | -0.33 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 18 | -0.15 | -0.32 to 0.03 | |
| Oct 19 | -0.15 | -0.32 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 20 | -0.16 | -0.33 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 21 | -0.17 | -0.34 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 22 | -0.17 | -0.32 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 23 | -0.17 | -0.34 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 24 | -0.18 | -0.33 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 25 | -0.17 | -0.34 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 26 | -0.17 | -0.35 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 27 | -0.17 | -0.36 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 28 | -0.17 | -0.37 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 29 | -0.18 | -0.38 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 30 | -0.18 | -0.37 to 0.02 | |
| Oct 31 | -0.18 | -0.38 to 0.02 | |
| Nov 1 | -0.18 | -0.40 to 0.02 | |
| Nov 2 | -0.19 | -0.42 to 0.01 | |
| Nov 3 | -0.19 | -0.44 to 0.01 | |
| Nov 4 | -0.19 | -0.49 to 0.01 | |
| Nov 5 | -0.19 | -0.53 to 0.01 | |
| Nov 6 | -0.19 | -0.63 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 7 | -0.19 | -0.59 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 8 | -0.19 | -0.64 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 9 | -0.19 | -0.70 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 10 | -0.21 | -0.76 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 11 | -0.21 | -0.81 to 0.00 | |
| Nov 12 | -0.23 | -0.94 to -0.01 | |
| Nov 13 | -0.24 | -1.08 to -0.02 | |
| Nov 14 | -0.25 | -1.36 to -0.02 | |
| Nov 15 | -0.25 | -1.53 to -0.03 | |
| Nov 16 | -0.25 | -1.76 to -0.05 | |
| Nov 17 | -0.27 | -1.85 to -0.05 | |
| Nov 18 | -0.29 | -2.07 to -0.05 | |
| Nov 19 | -0.31 | -2.53 to -0.06 | |
| Nov 20 | -0.31 | -2.58 to -0.06 | |
| Nov 21 | -0.33 | -2.63 to -0.07 | |
| Nov 22 | -0.38 | -3.05 to -0.08 | |
| Nov 23 | -0.43 | -3.45 to -0.10 | |
| Nov 24 | -0.45 | -4.01 to -0.11 | |
| Nov 25 | -0.51 | -4.15 to -0.12 | |
| Nov 26 | -0.60 | -5.11 to -0.13 | |
| Nov 27 | -0.71 | -5.87 to -0.15 | |
| Nov 28 | -0.91 | -6.09 to -0.15 | |
| Nov 29 | -1.07 | -6.20 to -0.17 | |
| Nov 30 | -1.21 | -6.39 to -0.18 | |
| Dec 1 | -1.31 | -6.53 to -0.19 | |
| Dec 2 | -1.45 | -6.57 to -0.19 | |
| Dec 3 | -1.66 | -6.84 to -0.21 | |
| Dec 4 | -2.01 | -7.75 to -0.24 | |
| Dec 5 | -2.33 | -8.34 to -0.25 | |
| Dec 6 | -2.65 | -8.60 to -0.27 | |
| Dec 7 | -3.00 | -9.21 to -0.30 | |
| Dec 8 | -3.38 | -9.68 to -0.30 | |
| Dec 9 | -3.61 | -9.79 to -0.36 | |
| Dec 10 | -3.75 | -9.59 to -0.44 | |
| Dec 11 | -3.92 | -9.59 to -0.45 | |
| Dec 12 | -4.39 | -9.68 to -0.50 | |
| Dec 13 | -4.82 | -10.39 to -0.54 | |
| Dec 14 | -5.30 | -11.15 to -0.59 | |
| Dec 15 | -5.76 | -12.26 to -0.68 | |
| Dec 16 | -6.12 | -12.98 to -0.81 | |
| Dec 17 | -6.34 | -13.17 to -0.91 | |
| Dec 18 | -6.63 | -13.27 to -1.04 | |
| Dec 19 | -7.04 | -13.77 to -1.20 | |
| Dec 20 | -7.09 | -13.95 to -1.24 | |
| Dec 21 | -7.45 | -14.41 to -1.49 | |
| Dec 22 | -7.83 | -15.05 to -1.70 | |
| Dec 23 | -8.08 | -15.34 to -1.93 | |
| Dec 24 | -8.23 | -15.04 to -2.07 | |
| Dec 25 | -8.39 | -15.62 to -2.16 | |
| Dec 26 | -8.92 | -16.51 to -2.38 | |
| Dec 27 | -9.28 | -16.79 to -2.54 | |
| Dec 28 | -9.65 | -17.59 to -2.90 | |
| Dec 29 | -10.06 | -18.26 to -3.47 | |
| Dec 30 | -10.24 | -18.76 to -3.69 | |
| Dec 31 | -10.20 | -18.27 to -3.85 | |
| Jan 1 | -10.34 | -18.50 to -4.15 | |
| Jan 2 | -10.72 | -19.67 to -4.49 | |
| Jan 3 | -11.07 | -20.62 to -4.92 | |
| Jan 4 | -11.29 | -21.38 to -5.27 | |
| Jan 5 | -11.38 | -21.79 to -5.46 | |
| Jan 6 | -11.68 | -21.86 to -5.56 | |
| Jan 7 | -12.02 | -21.72 to -5.88 | |
| Jan 8 | -11.93 | -21.54 to -5.96 | |
| Jan 9 | -12.20 | -21.96 to -6.09 | |
| Jan 10 | -12.44 | -21.92 to -6.41 | |
| Jan 11 | -12.61 | -22.29 to -6.82 | |
| Jan 12 | -12.53 | -22.36 to -7.05 | |
| Jan 13 | -12.50 | -21.94 to -7.11 | |
| Jan 14 | -12.45 | -20.48 to -7.19 | |
| Jan 15 | -12.49 | -20.15 to -7.30 | |
| Jan 16 | -12.65 | -20.11 to -7.21 | |
| Jan 17 | -12.72 | -20.10 to -7.12 | |
| Jan 18 | -12.60 | -19.62 to -7.19 | |
| Jan 19 | -12.23 | -19.12 to -7.11 | |
| Jan 20 | -11.90 | -18.61 to -7.21 | |
| Jan 21 | -12.09 | -18.97 to -7.46 | |
| Jan 22 | -12.34 | -18.44 to -7.78 | |
| Jan 23 | -12.16 | -17.60 to -8.02 | |
| Jan 24 | -12.08 | -17.80 to -8.07 | |
| Jan 25 | -12.12 | -18.58 to -8.25 | |
| Jan 26 | -12.74 | -19.16 to -8.58 | |
| Jan 27 | -13.16 | -20.03 to -8.88 | |
| Jan 28 | -13.71 | -21.22 to -9.37 | |
| Jan 29 | -13.95 | -22.01 to -9.63 | |
| Jan 30 | -13.92 | -21.83 to -9.66 | |
| Jan 31 | -13.98 | -21.88 to -9.66 | |
| Feb 1 | -14.18 | -22.00 to -9.75 | |
| Feb 2 | -14.45 | -22.02 to -9.83 | |
| Feb 3 | -14.78 | -22.41 to -10.04 | |
| Feb 4 | -14.91 | -23.37 to -10.14 | |
| Feb 5 | -14.60 | -24.12 to -10.21 | |
| Feb 6 | -15.23 | -24.60 to -10.40 | |
| Feb 7 | -15.73 | -24.47 to -10.58 | |
| Feb 8 | -16.11 | -24.88 to -10.79 | |
| Feb 9 | -16.46 | -25.63 to -11.00 | |
| Feb 10 | -16.32 | -26.26 to -11.06 | |
| Feb 11 | -16.25 | -26.61 to -11.00 | |
| Feb 12 | -16.09 | -26.47 to -10.98 | |
| Feb 13 | -16.15 | -26.20 to -11.05 | |
| Feb 14 | -16.21 | -26.00 to -10.85 | |
| Feb 15 | -16.15 | -25.97 to -10.82 |
Hover or tap the chart to read a day. The “This fall” line shows only days when enough routes report. Route data through Oct 5. The ground tile compares this fall's 0 °C date with the typical one, using the legend above.
Was the ground wet when it started to freeze?
Wet ground holds more water, and that water has to freeze before the ground can cool further, so a wet fall tends to slow the freeze. Utqiagvik had 184% of normal September precipitation; Deadhorse ran near normal.2 5 to 7 °F colder than normal at Deadhorse and Utqiagvik.2
- Utqiagvik
- Utqiagvik normal
- Deadhorse
- Deadhorse normal
Show the numbers
| Date | Utqiagvik (in) | Utqiagvik normal (in) | Deadhorse (in) | Deadhorse normal (in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aug 16 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aug 17 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Aug 18 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Aug 19 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Aug 20 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Aug 21 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Aug 22 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Aug 23 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| Aug 24 | 0.69 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| Aug 25 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| Aug 26 | 0.82 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| Aug 27 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| Aug 28 | 0.82 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| Aug 29 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| Aug 30 | 0.87 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| Aug 31 | 0.96 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| Sep 1 | 0.96 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.72 |
| Sep 2 | 1.03 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| Sep 3 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| Sep 4 | 1.03 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 0.79 |
| Sep 5 | 1.03 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.81 |
| Sep 6 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 0.84 |
| Sep 7 | 1.03 | 0.76 | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Sep 8 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 0.51 | 0.89 |
| Sep 9 | 1.03 | 0.81 | 0.65 | 0.91 |
| Sep 10 | 1.62 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| Sep 11 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| Sep 12 | 1.96 | 0.89 | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Sep 13 | 1.96 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Sep 14 | 1.96 | 0.95 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Sep 15 | 1.96 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.05 |
| Sep 16 | 1.96 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Sep 17 | 1.97 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| Sep 18 | 2.11 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| Sep 19 | 2.12 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Sep 20 | 2.17 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| Sep 21 | 2.20 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Sep 22 | 2.31 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Sep 23 | 2.31 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| Sep 24 | 2.31 | 1.20 | 1.11 | 1.23 |
| Sep 25 | 2.31 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| Sep 26 | 2.31 | 1.25 | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| Sep 27 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| Sep 28 | 2.36 | 1.29 | 1.11 | 1.30 |
| Sep 29 | 2.36 | 1.31 | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| Sep 30 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| Oct 1 | 2.38 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Oct 2 | 2.43 | 1.37 | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| Oct 3 | 2.44 | 1.39 | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| Oct 4 | 2.44 | 1.41 | 1.11 | 1.41 |
| Oct 5 | 2.44 | 1.43 | 1.11 | 1.42 |
- Utqiagvik
- Utqiagvik normal
- Deadhorse
- Deadhorse normal
Show the numbers
| Date | Utqiagvik (°F) | Utqiagvik normal (°F) | Deadhorse (°F) | Deadhorse normal (°F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | 57.5 | 40.0 | 56.5 | 43.9 |
| Aug 16 | 53.5 | 39.9 | 58.5 | 43.7 |
| Aug 17 | 42.0 | 39.9 | 42.0 | 43.5 |
| Aug 18 | 38.5 | 39.8 | 39.5 | 43.3 |
| Aug 19 | 37.5 | 39.7 | 38.0 | 43.1 |
| Aug 20 | 45.5 | 39.6 | 43.5 | 42.9 |
| Aug 21 | 45.5 | 39.5 | 49.5 | 42.7 |
| Aug 22 | 36.0 | 39.4 | 45.5 | 42.5 |
| Aug 23 | 44.5 | 39.3 | 41.0 | 42.3 |
| Aug 24 | 48.0 | 39.2 | 51.5 | 42.1 |
| Aug 25 | 40.5 | 39.1 | 46.0 | 41.9 |
| Aug 26 | 35.5 | 38.9 | 41.0 | 41.7 |
| Aug 27 | 38.5 | 38.8 | 41.0 | 41.4 |
| Aug 28 | 35.5 | 38.6 | 38.5 | 41.2 |
| Aug 29 | 37.5 | 38.5 | 36.0 | 40.9 |
| Aug 30 | 44.5 | 38.3 | 39.0 | 40.7 |
| Aug 31 | 40.5 | 38.1 | 44.5 | 40.4 |
| Sep 1 | 35.0 | 37.9 | 40.1 | |
| Sep 2 | 35.0 | 37.7 | 35.0 | 39.9 |
| Sep 3 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 39.6 |
| Sep 4 | 34.5 | 37.3 | 33.5 | 39.3 |
| Sep 5 | 35.5 | 37.1 | 34.0 | 38.9 |
| Sep 6 | 35.5 | 36.8 | 35.5 | 38.6 |
| Sep 7 | 34.0 | 36.6 | 35.5 | 38.3 |
| Sep 8 | 34.5 | 36.3 | 36.0 | 37.9 |
| Sep 9 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 41.0 | 37.6 |
| Sep 10 | 42.5 | 35.7 | 48.0 | 37.2 |
| Sep 11 | 46.0 | 35.4 | 51.5 | 36.9 |
| Sep 12 | 40.5 | 35.1 | 46.0 | 36.5 |
| Sep 13 | 34.5 | 34.8 | 37.5 | 36.1 |
| Sep 14 | 31.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 35.7 |
| Sep 15 | 30.0 | 34.2 | 33.0 | 35.2 |
| Sep 16 | 30.0 | 33.8 | 33.0 | 34.8 |
| Sep 17 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 32.0 | 34.4 |
| Sep 18 | 30.5 | 33.1 | 32.5 | 33.9 |
| Sep 19 | 30.5 | 32.8 | 33.5 | 33.5 |
| Sep 20 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 32.5 | 33.0 |
| Sep 21 | 31.0 | 32.0 | 33.0 | 32.5 |
| Sep 22 | 32.5 | 31.6 | 37.5 | 32.0 |
| Sep 23 | 27.5 | 31.2 | 31.0 | 31.5 |
| Sep 24 | 28.0 | 30.9 | 27.0 | 31.0 |
| Sep 25 | 29.0 | 30.5 | 25.5 | 30.5 |
| Sep 26 | 34.0 | 30.1 | 31.0 | 30.0 |
| Sep 27 | 32.5 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| Sep 28 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 31.5 | 28.9 |
| Sep 29 | 28.5 | 28.8 | 28.0 | 28.4 |
| Sep 30 | 26.5 | 28.4 | 24.5 | 27.8 |
| Oct 1 | 22.5 | 28.0 | 21.5 | 27.3 |
| Oct 2 | 21.0 | 27.6 | 15.0 | 26.7 |
| Oct 3 | 18.0 | 27.1 | 19.0 | 26.1 |
| Oct 4 | 16.0 | 26.7 | 20.0 | 25.5 |
| Oct 5 | 24.0 | 26.3 | 27.0 | 25.0 |
NOAA weather station data from August 15 to October 5, 2026, against the 1991 to 2020 normal.2
What does NOAA expect?
NOAA splits every season into three equal bins: colder than normal, near normal, and warmer than normal. With no signal, each bin has a 1-in-3 chance. When NOAA gives Deadhorse 40 to 50% odds of a warmer season, the warm bin is favored, and at the top of that range a near-normal or cold season is only at least as likely as not.1
Chance each three-month season is warmer than normal1
Bars show NOAA's probability band. The dashed line is the usual odds, 1 in 3.
Oct to Dec
Deadhorse40 to 50%
Utqiagvik40 to 50%
Nov to Jan
Deadhorse40 to 50%
Utqiagvik33 to 40%
Dec to Feb
Deadhorse40 to 50%
Utqiagvik33 to 40%
Jan to Mar
Deadhorse33 to 40%
Utqiagvik33 to 40%
Feb to Apr
Deadhorse33 to 40%
Utqiagvik33 to 40%
Mar to May
Deadhorse33 to 40%
Utqiagvik33 to 40%
A conflicting outlook. A joint quarterly outlook gives western Alaska a 40 to 60% chance of a colder-than-normal October to December, the opposite of NOAA's seasonal map.1 If the cold fall arrives, the western coastal plain could open earlier than the baseline. The two outlooks cannot both be right for October to December.
40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-normal season at Deadhorse through February; at Utqiagvik, 33 to 40% from the November to January season on. Usual odds are 1 in 3.1
How close can the site-level model call the date?
Average miss, in days, when forecasting the date ground at 30 cm reaches -5 °C, 21 days ahead. Shorter bars are better.7
In-sample results, one corridor, two winters.7
When has the coastal tundra opened before?
Eastern Coastal opening dates by season. Seasons before 2010-11 used older opening rules (in the 1970s, 1 ft frozen ground and 6 in snow), so their dates are not comparable with today's. They are drawn as hollow markers.4,5,6,7
- Today's rule
- Older rules, not comparable
- Strong El Niño (Oct to Dec index 1.5 or more)
- Median since 2010-11, Jan 4
Show the numbers
| Season | Opened | Closed | Days open | El Niño index | Strong El Niño | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-70 | November 15 | May 18 | 184 | 0.81 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1970-71 | October 10 | May 21 | 223 | -0.78 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1971-72 | November 1 | May 17 | 198 | -0.86 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1972-73 | November 1 | June 5 | 216 | 1.84 | Yes | beadedcloud compiled records |
| 1973-74 | November 20 | May 17 | 178 | -1.89 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1974-75 | November 20 | June 2 | 194 | -0.88 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1975-76 | November 1 | May 18 | 199 | -1.47 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1977-78 | November 25 | May 28 | 184 | 0.84 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1978-79 | November 2 | May 29 | 208 | -0.07 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1980-81 | November 5 | May 7 | 183 | 0.08 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1981-82 | November 8 | May 17 | 190 | -0.19 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1982-83 | November 2 | May 8 | 187 | 2.03 | Yes | beadedcloud compiled records |
| 1983-84 | November 14 | May 18 | 186 | -0.96 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1984-85 | January 5 | April 28 | 113 | -0.95 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1985-86 | December 3 | May 15 | 163 | -0.28 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1986-87 | November 7 | May 16 | 190 | 1.06 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1987-88 | December 10 | June 2 | 175 | 1.20 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1988-89 | November 15 | May 17 | 183 | -1.81 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1989-90 | January 10 | May 1 | 111 | -0.12 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1990-91 | November 17 | May 26 | 190 | 0.31 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1991-92 | November 25 | May 12 | 169 | 1.18 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1992-93 | November 20 | May 16 | 177 | -0.24 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1993-94 | December 6 | May 10 | 155 | 0.20 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1994-95 | December 7 | May 14 | 158 | 0.93 | beadedcloud compiled records | |
| 1995-96 | December 4 | May 15 | 163 | -1.05 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 1996-97 | January 6 | May 5 | 119 | -0.39 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 1997-98 | January 7 | April 30 | 113 | 2.34 | Yes | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR |
| 1998-99 | January 14 | May 5 | 111 | -1.31 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 1999-00 | December 20 | May 1 | 133 | -1.35 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2000-01 | January 10 | April 25 | 105 | -0.76 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2001-02 | January 25 | April 20 | 85 | -0.33 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2002-03 | January 27 | April 25 | 88 | 1.19 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2003-04 | December 23 | May 13 | 142 | 0.29 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2004-05 | December 10 | May 20 | 161 | 0.64 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2005-06 | December 6 | May 12 | 157 | -0.57 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2006-07 | December 19 | May 10 | 142 | 0.88 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2007-08 | December 28 | May 16 | 140 | -1.57 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2008-09 | December 29 | April 28 | 120 | -0.57 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2009-10 | December 22 | May 7 | 136 | 1.31 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2010-11 | January 4 | May 21 | 137 | -1.57 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2011-12 | December 21 | May 17 | 148 | -1.02 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2012-13 | January 8 | May 20 | 132 | 0.13 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2013-14 | December 20 | May 5 | 136 | -0.12 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2014-15 | December 19 | May 11 | 143 | 0.70 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2015-16 | January 4 | May 5 | 122 | 2.45 | Yes | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR |
| 2016-17 | January 9 | May 9 | 120 | -0.49 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2017-18 | January 15 | April 25 | 100 | -0.61 | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR | |
| 2018-19 | December 17 | April 15 | 119 | 1.04 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2019-20 | January 8 | April 20 | 103 | 0.72 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2020-21 | January 5 | April 26 | 111 | -1.11 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2021-22 | January 4 | May 15 | 131 | -0.91 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2022-23 | January 4 | April 21 | 107 | -0.82 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2023-24 | January 12 | May 15 | 124 | 1.90 | Yes | beadedcloud compiled records, from DNR |
| 2024-25 | December 23 | May 16 | 144 | -0.29 | DNR tundra notification list | |
| 2025-26 | January 9 | May 20 | 131 | -0.61 | Petroleum News citing DNR |
Strong El Niño winters under today's rule
A very strong event is expected. Only two strong El Niño winters fall under today's rule; they opened January 4 and January 12, against a typical January 4.1,7 With only 2 such winters, this evidence is thin.
When does the ground reach 0, -3, and -5 °C?
Each temperature unlocks a stage of ice road work. These are the dates ground at 30 cm on monitored coastal routes crossed each threshold. Monitored routes, 7 winters, all route-seasons: the median date, and the range that held for the middle 80%.7
| Ground at 30 cm | What it unlocks | Median date7Middle 80% |
|---|---|---|
| 0 °C | Pre-packing | Sep 27Sep 20 to Oct 30 |
| -3 °C | Misting | Dec 10Nov 23 to Jan 1 |
| -5 °C (DNR rule) | Build and open | Dec 15Nov 26 to Jan 7 |
These are first crossings across all route-seasons. The hero readiness date uses a 3-day hold on route-seasons with a DNR general opening, so its dates differ slightly.
Want early tundra access for your route?
This page is regional. The beadedcloud Temperature Forecasting Tool (TFT) forecasts your own route, site by site, from ground sensors on the route: the date each site reaches -5 °C, as a date with a range, about 21 days ahead. That is the evidence and the lead time to ask DNR for a conditional opening.
More public sites
